US and Europe will lead global clean hydrogen production in 2030, with little supply from exporting nations

US and Europe are expected to lead global clean hydrogen production by 2030, with minimal contribution from exporting nations. Due to low demand for hydrogen imports, countries like Australia, India, Middle East, Africa, and Latin America will represent only a small part of the market by the decade's end, according to a new BloombergNEF (BNEF) report. Many nations aiming to become major hydrogen exporters will be disappointed as global demand for imported hydrogen will be much lower than anticipated. The US and Europe will be the primary producers of clean hydrogen, with the US focusing mainly on blue hydrogen.

Project development in Latin America, Australia, the Middle East, and Africa is hindered by low demand and limited export policies before 2030. The US and Canada are positioned to meet most export demands, particularly for blue hydrogen, due to mature projects and substantial subsidies.

BNEF projects that by 2030, 16.4 million tonnes of low-carbon hydrogen will be produced annually from 477 projects worldwide. The US will account for 37.2% of this production, followed by Europe (24.3%), China (18.9%), Canada (5.5%), Middle East and Africa (4.9%), India (3%), Latin America (2.4%), Australia (1.8%), and the rest of Asia (1.2%).

Of the total production, 9.6 million tonnes will be green hydrogen from renewables, and 6.8 million tonnes will be blue hydrogen (produced from natural gas with carbon capture and storage), with most blue hydrogen coming from North America. In Europe, the UK is projected to be the largest clean hydrogen producer, with 0.8 million tonnes per year by 2030, primarily blue hydrogen. The Netherlands, Germany, Norway, and Spain will also contribute significantly.

Countries with significant clean hydrogen ambitions but low public support, like Egypt and Chile, will see minimal project completion by 2030 without additional incentives. China's forecast of 3.1 million tonnes is uncertain due to a lack of project visibility and targets for 2030. India's first green hydrogen auction subsidies are low by international standards, likely insufficient for final investment decisions.

BNEF's analysis of over 1,600 projects is more pessimistic than the Hydrogen Council's November report, which expected 40 million tonnes of clean hydrogen production by 2030, with 20 million tonnes transported between continents.